WEEK 3 PICKS

LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE

Hello.

I'm facing personal problems and I won't be able to continue with this, at least at previous level.
I'll post everyday here who is my pick for the day and a simple why.
Anyway, I'll explian some things:

Now, we enter a time where some adjustments have to be done.
The results are being extremelly difficult for us.
Two 'underdogs' like Spurs and Jazz are winning 3-1.
Then we have the Suns and Lakers. Both should advance but the series are tied.
In the East things are easier. Cavs, Hawks, Magic and Celtics will advance.

We have to decide now that 7 of those series are done.
Lakers, Spurs, Jazz, Cavs, Magic, Hawks and Celtics will pass.
Only the SUNS-BLAZERS serie is in the air.

We have two news for us.
-All of the players we ahve picked ave been picked from the right teams.
-Our two last picks G.Wallace & Luol Deng were somehow...poor.

So we have to decide now what to do.
The best way of action is sticking to our plan and try picking players just form the teams that won't advance.
And is very important a daily monitorizing of the situation.

Let's see what pickable players we have left from eliminating teams:
Thunder: -
Mavs: Nowitzky
Nuggets: Anthony, Billups
Bulls: -
Bobcats: -
Bucks: -
Heat: -

And from the open serie,
Suns: Stoudamire, Nash
Blazers: Aldridge, Miller, ¿Roy?

So, let's pick today's player:
It's extremely important taking a Blazer/Sun.
Next 2 games of that series are in the same days of the Mavs games.
So, we have to pick from:

Stoudamire, Nash, Aldridge, Miller, Roy.

0% has picked Roy for today. Is tempting, but not a smart decision. I don't want t pick him today and get a 20-25 PRA from a player who could get 2x that next(s) game(s).

We have to take into consideration that if the Blazers advance they have 3 viable options and even Camby.
If the Suns advance they have 2 options (and maybe J-Rich).
And that Suns have court advantage and are the favourites.
Sorry Blazers, but you're out.

Aldridge is overall better, and Roy's (small) presence will hurt more to Miller than LaMarcus.
So, Aldridge is my man.
others: Miller, Jennings, Stoudamire

Tomorrow we will go with Dirk Nowiztky. I'll try posting something.

Have a nice week,

LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE

DAY 8 - April 24th - Saturday - G. WALLACE (21)

GERALD WALLACE

Alternative picks: Stephen Jackson, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Jennings

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Hello folks!

I've been out today so I haven't been able to post this until now.

Yestarday we had a great pick with Wade. He gave us 47, and was injuried in the last play while losing to Celtics.

So the pick was, again, the best one.

-> There have been problems with the updates of yesterday's results. I hope that it'll work soon. But anyway, we did it nice.

Now let's go with today's pick.

Don't forget taking a look at timetable & players:

Take a look at thrusday's post, where upcoming 3 days strategy was analysed.

Today we have to roll on with Gerald Wallace. He will play home, where he is much more better than away.

Take a look at wednesday's post where is analysed why Gerald Wallace was better for today.

In case you picked Wallace on the last Bobcats game (why didn't you trust me? that cost you lots of points! :P) your pick is Captain Jack.

There are only 2 other options for today:

·Jennings (or Salmons if you picked him). Neither of them makes me feel confident right now. Is a poor pick.

·Aldridge. We can wait until at least 5th game where if everything goes OK we'll pick him. Is the best decision, in an elimination game.

So, Crash is our pick. He will play with energy in Charlotte.

Dear Gerald, Love for you and Blocks for them! :P

Good luck!

GERALD WALLACE

Alternative picks: Stephen Jackson, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Jennings

DAY 7 - April 23th - Friday - · D. WADE (47)

DWYANE WADE

Alternative picks: Jermaine O'Neal, Carlos Boozer, Tim Duncan

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Yestarday we got 52 from Durant, but OKC won. Anyway, I don't see Thunder beating the Lakers so yestarday we made also the best possible pick.

We were quite lucky. Durant was shoting quite bad all the night, the blowout was a possibility in the first quarter, and he was in foul trouble.

I'm sure that Durant will have better shoting nights, but those 19! rebounds give us 52, a number I don't see Durant topping while Artest is behind him.

We have climbed in the standings, and the picks are becoming perfects. So great work until now.

Now let's go with today's pick.

Don't forget taking a look at timetable & players:

Everything went quite good yestarday since Suns beat Blazers, and now Phoenix is the clear favourite. So our plan will fit well.

Take a look at yesterday's post, where upcoming 3 days strategy was analysed.

So today's guy is Wade.

The other 2 series are tied, and right now Heat is the team most likely to get out of the way.

We have to expect 35+ PRA from D.Wade. Todya's pick is a transition one since most of people is picking him, and I don't see any advantages picking him another day. So the final winner will be surely picking him. Let's just hope a 35-40 PRA.

But today a 25-30 PRA from Wade wouldn't be a great disaster, neither a 45-50 PRA amazing.

Let's have an easy night, an enjoy today's game.

7:00p ET, at ESPN & Raptors TV.

Good luck!...uhm... giving love has been working very well...let's call it our Orlando little girl, so don't worry Dwyane, love for you too! :P

DWYANE WADE

Alternative picks: Jermaine O'Neal, Carlos Boozer, Tim Duncan

DAY 6 - April 22th - Thursday - K. DURANT (52)

KEVIN DURANT


Alternative picks: Russell Westbrook, Luol Deng, Derrick Rose

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I'll tell you a secret... I can see the future LOL
I didn't know this, but after 5 days I'm starting to really believe it :)

Thank you very much for your support, I hope that this can help the rookie players. I was lost when I started playing, and it was other people's help which helped me improving, so I'm just returning back the help. NBA cares ;)

Well, Cap-Jack, you're great man. 33 PRA injuried. And it was the best day 'cause he was 3rd overall.
Duncan & Nowitzky were the only ones with more points, but their teams could advance.
So our pick was, clearly, the best.
If you add that the other player, teams playing for winning picked yesterday, G.Wallace a.k.a. 'Crash', posted 22 PRA, this gives us 11 points edge over majority of the people who picked him.
I trully believe that at this time we have picked the right players everyday!
But there will be days of bad luck, or at least it should happen...

Let's hope it doesn't happen with today's pick:

Don't forget taking a look at timetable & players:
As you could expect after 5 picks, we won't enter the POR-PHO series yet.
So we have 2 teams to pick from:
Chicago Bulls
Oklahoma City Thunder

Let's remember that their pickable players are:
Bulls: Rose, Noah, Deng
Thunder: Durant, Westbrook

We already picked Rose (45), Westbrook (35), Noah (41).

So we have Deng and Durant left, both playing home.
Lets take a look at the timetable:

It's clear that we have to pick Durant.
Now I'll explain one thing that most of the people misses in this game.
Let's imagine that we are in a 3-1 elimination game, where Suns are leading the series over Blazers.
If we can choose in that day between Aldridge and Gerald Wallace, we have to pick Gerald Wallace, not Aldridge, even if he can get out of the game.
Remember that the goal is to get the most PRA, not picking every "good average PRA player" in the game.
In this first round, we have days with 3-4 games. That doen't exist in second round, we will need every single player of the advancing teams in order to get the final win.

So we have to continue picking players from teams we know they won't advance to the next round.
At this time we should re-evaluate the series, so in order:

'decided' series
Bulls
Bucks
Bobcats

'small option' series
Heat
Thunder

'open' series
Suns
Jazz
Spurs

Let's see players left from the first 2 categories:
Deng, Wallace, Wade & Durant (this analysis is helpful for you even if the players are others, since it's a team analysis, just changing players of the same team)

So, in 23th we should pick Wade.
Now we have 2 options:

1.
22th Durant
24th Wallace
25th Deng

2.
22th Deng
24th Durant
26th Wallace

So, we have to choose if we want 26th (option 1) or 25th (option 2) free.
And 26th is the only day that could be an elimination game.
If we look at it, we can see how the game 6 and game 7 of SAS and POR series are on the same days.
So picking a Blazer in that game 5 (Aldridge is the only sure pick, Miller being a 2nd banana) would be a smart move.

We cannot know which move will be the best one. Neither we know how the series will end, or when will these 4 players post their best numbers.
But these reasoning gives us an upside over the simple luck.

And right now that is a lot.
While I don't like picking players most people take, today's we'll have to pick Durant. Also, I don't like risking a huge Durant result while we're out from him.

Don't forget that any 'strange' result will force us to change our picks any given day.

So today is Durant's day.
We've been saving Durant for today.
Ron-Ron be a nice guy and take one rest day. Our guy needs it. We need it. We'd love it! :P

KEVIN DURANT

Alternative picks: Russell Westbrook, Luol Deng, Derrick Rose

DAY 5 - April 21th - Wed'day - S. JACKSON (33)

STEPHEN JACKSON


Alternative picks: Gerald Wallace, Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan

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Yestarday I was really scared when the game began. It could have been an easy blowout. Or a Jennings' shootaround... But in the end Salmons posted 28 PRA. Everything went as expected.
Jennings had an off night with Joe Johnson locked at him everynight. And Salmons managed to get those points in garbage minutes so everything went OK. I asked for 25-30 and we got 28 so it ended well.
There were more good notices in the other players results:
Lakers: Bryant & Gasol
Atlanta: Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Al Horford
They had more PRA but their teams will advance.
Wade, Richardson, Nash, Allen, Davis posted more PRA but their series are not still clear, and their result was quite similar to Salmons'

About Durant... we'll pick him in a better day, trust me ;)
Also, take notice that Salmons' average is 21, and we got 28 so is +7. A positive result once more.
We're in the right way, and in 3 days we'll be in a greater situation 'cause we'll pick some superstars :)
This is running much more better than expected. Playing for the final win, in the first week the usual percentile is 50-60. Never 84. We have made the right calls, but we'll be unlicky anyday. Maybe today... :S

Beacuse...it's time for today's pick:

Don't forget taking a look at timetable & players:
As you could expect after 4 picks, we won't enter the DAL-SAS series yet.
So we have 1 team to pick from:
Charlotte Bobcats

Let's remember that their pickable players are:
Gerald Wallace
Stephen Jackson

We should have in mind that those 2 players should be picked this round. So let's see when.
Taking a look at the we can see how 24th and 26th the Bobcats play just with the POR-PHO series (we won't pick more Thunder or Buck). So any of those days we'll probably pick the other Bobcat.

Who pick now (away) and who that day (home)?
They have a very similar PRA average over the February 1st - March 31th period. 29 to 28 for Jackson.
So we have to take into consideration two things:

1. Away differential:
G. Wallace: -2.2 Away (he is better home)
S. Jackson: +2.6 Away (he is better away)

2. Stephen Jackson is injuried.
He has a small injury in the knee. Was hold out of the game in the last minutes of the game. He was angry for that because he wanted to play. He say he won't wear any brace around the knee. He will start today.

If the point 2 hadn't exist Jackson would have been the easy pick.
Now you have to decide what is the best pick.
We can have a Magic team around Wallace and Jackson, angry, excelling.
And we can also have Jackson DNP.

I'm going with Jackson. But today it's very important to stay tunned in the 30 minutes before the game for any new about the injury/status of Jackson. Remember that you can change your pick until 5 minutes before the tipoff. (be careful, you don't want the system closing when your are changing your player)
Also consider that Jackson can put 35 PRA and get injuried in the last minute. That, sorry Captain Jack, would be great for us.

This is not a matter of risks, is a matter of results. And I think that Jackson will post more PRA than Wallace tonight.

The right choice is this, but there is a risk, and I'll buy that risk 'cause I think that the results will be nice.

Let's cross our fingers. S-Jax, give us a b(p)unch of points and we'll give you our love!
*I'm feeling like Tiger, giving love to everyone* :P

STEPHEN JACKSON


Alternative picks: Gerald Wallace, Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan

DAY 4 - April 20th - Tuesday - J. SALMONS (28)

JOHN SALMONS


Alternative picks: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings

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It's amazing, but 3/3.
Yesterday Noah performed 41 PRA +18 over his season averages.
3 players gave better result:
Lebron James, 56, +11 over averages, his team will advance
D.Williams, 49, +17 over averages, his team could advance (without Okur, I expect his averages increasing)
C.Anthony, 42, +1 over averages, his team could advance.
The only pick that, after looking at it, could be better is D-Will. But his team won. So it was a very bad result. We got 41 for a player who will not advance. Once again all we spoke about went true. Noah played with fierceness, and was the leader of his team.
And more good news. Rose pick was deficient. Boozer has not injuried and played average. Utah won. We have picked players form teams whose advance in PO's is nearly impossible.
I prefer getting 41 from Noah, and have Anthony, Boozer and D-Will, than picking one of them and get some more points. Everyday. Not even close!
But this was thanks to Joakim, you gave us a great help!
We are 84%. Our strategy-results are the bests, and we are in the right way.

It's time for today's pick:

Don't forget taking a look at timetable & players:
We won't enter the BOS-MIA series. Neither the PHO-POR. Anyone could win. So we have 2 teams to pick from:
Oklahoma City Thunder
Milwaukee Bucks

Let's remember that their pickable players are:
Durant
Westbrook
Salmons
Jennings

The picks of the last days were quite easy. At least we weren't forced to make any tough decision. But now we have to choose one way.
I had Aldridge picked for today but POR win forces us to wait before entering in those kingdoms.

We picked Westbrook, so we have just one player left from the OKC, Durant.
He is a player that we will have to pick.
The questions are these:
Are Salmons or Jennings worthy of a pick? Maybe not
Is smart picking the 2nd best PRA player in an away game that has great chances of being a blowout? Maybe not
Will one of the duo Salmons-Jennings post above his average PRA? Maybe yes
Is the game 3 of the OKC series the best day for picking Durant? Yes

Let's take another look to the Salmons-Jennings duo:
Player(Season av, last 2 months av, Reg-Season vs. Hawks av, PRA-15 since AllStar)
Salmons (21, 24, 41, 2)
Jennings (24, 21, 13, 8)

Amazed?
Salmons has exceled in Milwaukee, and even more against Hawks: 44, 45, 33 in 3 games.

So we have narrowed the pool to Salmons and Durant
Who is our player?

If we knew that Salmons would post 30 PRA the choice would be easy. But there is risk involved.
Is your choice.

Mine's is Salmons.
Let's hope that there is not a blowout. Our strategy has worked so well that we could accept a 20 PRA performance and still be in the right way. There will be time for the superstars.

John, you have been the #1 in Milwaukee since your arrival. Give us one of your hot nights, and we will give you our eternal love LOL. Give us 25+ PRA

JOHN SALMONS


Alternative picks: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings

DAY 3 - April 19th - Monday - J. NOAH (41)

JOAKIM NOAH

Alternative picks: Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer

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2/2. Yesterday was a great day for us. Let's remember that the main goal in the first round is to arrive the next round without having picked any player who has advanced, while picking all the meaningful players of the teams that don't pass, in over-par perfomances . There were 6 players who had more PRA than Westbrook yesterday:
Nelson, his team will pass 2nd round
Duncan & Ginobili, their team could pass the 2nd round
Nowitzky, his team could pass the 2nd round
Miller, his team could pass the 2nd round
So those 5 picks were bad. I don't buy 1-9 points for all that heavy risk this early. Not even close.
The only player that could be discussed as better for yesterday, G. Wallace, turns a bad pick after looking at the schedule. Which 2 days will they use for picking Westbrook & Durant? 20 and? They will have problems with the tied series while we won't.
And let's speak about our folk, Westbrook. That was great! 35 PRA. And the best new wasn't that, it was that we didn't buy Durant's sub-par performance. We are doing things well, and we are being lucky too.
We are 84%, just -15 from leaders while picking the right players, is an amazing start!

It's time for today's pick:

Don't forget taking a look at timetable & players:
Today's pick it's quite easy. We won't enter yet the DEN-UTA series.
(If you are sure that Denver will win, pick Boozer before he gets hurt, and expect good performance from him)
So we have to pick a player from:
Chicago Bulls

Let's remember that their pickable players are:
Rose, Noah, Deng

We already picked Rose, so we won't pick him. If you hadn't picked him, pick him now. Probably you won't have days for another Bull, and he is the player who will probably give you the most PRA.

But we have to chose between Noah and Deng.

If you take a look at DAY 1 pick, you'll see why is better Noah than Deng
difference between home and away:
Noah: +1.2 Away
Deng: -2.3 Away

And also notice how Noah's averages for the season are lower than his real performance because he has dealed with a platar fasciitis for months. But now he is healthy. And healthy his averages rise from 24 PRA to 30 PRA.
Also, his performance in Game 1 was overall bad. He even was forced to hack-a-shaq because he wasn't able to stop the big fella. He will be really hurted in his honour. He will want to do it well in front of that same crowd that laughed at him. He is really hungry (has speaked really bad about Garnett dirtiness), and just wants to go there and explode.

I'm sure he will give 120%. And expect the Cavs doing 2 on 1 on Rose after his last performance. The best pick for tomorrow is clearly him. Expect at least 25-30 PRA from him. Give us love!

JOAKIM NOAH

Alternative picks: Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer